IB SL

Statistics and Probability

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IB Math AI SL — Statistics and Probability

Complete Study Guide

Topics Covered

  1. Descriptive Statistics — measures of central tendency and spread
  2. Data Presentation — histograms, box plots, cumulative frequency
  3. Probability — combined events, conditional probability, tree diagrams
  4. Probability Distributions — binomial and normal
  5. Statistical Tests — chi-squared test for independence
  6. Correlation and Regression — linear regression, rr and R2R^2
  7. Practice Questions and Exam Alerts

Topic 4 of the IB Math AI SL syllabus — this is the largest topic at 36 SL hours.

The heart of Math AI: Statistics and probability makes up the largest portion of the syllabus and is heavily represented on both papers. Expect at least one full extended-response question on Paper 2 to be purely statistical. Master your GDC’s statistics functions — they are essential.

Key statistics formulas

MeasureFormula
Meanxˉ=xin\bar{x} = \dfrac{\sum x_i}{n} or xˉ=fixifi\bar{x} = \dfrac{\sum f_i x_i}{\sum f_i}
Standard deviationσ=(xixˉ)2n\sigma = \sqrt{\dfrac{\sum(x_i - \bar{x})^2}{n}} (population)
Interquartile rangeIQR=Q3Q1\text{IQR} = Q_3 - Q_1
ProbabilityP(A)=n(A)n(U)P(A) = \dfrac{n(A)}{n(U)}
Combined eventsP(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)
Conditional probabilityP(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \dfrac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}

Section 1: Descriptive Statistics

1.1 Measures of Central Tendency

MeasureWhat it tells youWhen to use
Mean (xˉ\bar{x})Average valueSymmetric data, no extreme outliers
MedianMiddle valueSkewed data or data with outliers
ModeMost frequent valueCategorical data

1.2 Measures of Spread

MeasureFormula / Description
Rangemaxmin\text{max} - \text{min}
Interquartile range (IQR)Q3Q1Q_3 - Q_1 (middle 50% of data)
Standard deviation (σ\sigma or ss)Measures spread around the mean
Varianceσ2\sigma^2 (the square of standard deviation)

GDC for statistics: Enter data into a list and use 1-Var Stats (TI-84) or STAT CALC (Casio). This gives you the mean, median, quartiles, standard deviation, and more instantly. Never calculate these by hand on Paper 2.

1.3 Outliers

An outlier is typically defined as any value:

  • Below Q11.5×IQRQ_1 - 1.5 \times \text{IQR}, or
  • Above Q3+1.5×IQRQ_3 + 1.5 \times \text{IQR}

Descriptive statistics in context

The daily rainfall (mm) in a city over 10 days: 0, 0, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 12, 15, 48.

Using GDC: xˉ=10.0\bar{x} = 10.0, median =6.0= 6.0, Q1=2Q_1 = 2, Q3=12Q_3 = 12, σ=13.3\sigma = 13.3.

IQR=122=10\text{IQR} = 12 - 2 = 10.

Outlier boundaries: 215=132 - 15 = -13 and 12+15=2712 + 15 = 27. The value 48 is above 27, so it is an outlier.

The median (6.0) is a better measure of centre than the mean (10.0) because the outlier pulls the mean up.


Section 2: Data Presentation

2.1 Histograms

A histogram shows the distribution of continuous data. The area of each bar is proportional to the frequency.

For unequal class widths, the yy-axis shows frequency density = frequencyclass width\dfrac{\text{frequency}}{\text{class width}}.

2.2 Cumulative Frequency Curves

Plot cumulative frequency against the upper boundary of each class. Use to read off:

  • Median: at n2\frac{n}{2}
  • Q1Q_1: at n4\frac{n}{4}
  • Q3Q_3: at 3n4\frac{3n}{4}
  • Percentiles: at the appropriate fraction of nn

2.3 Box Plots (Box-and-Whisker Diagrams)

A box plot shows: minimum, Q1Q_1, median, Q3Q_3, maximum. Outliers are shown as individual points.

Comparing distributions: When two box plots are shown side by side, compare:

  • Centre (median) — which group has higher/lower values
  • Spread (IQR and range) — which group is more variable
  • Skewness — if the median is closer to Q1Q_1, data is positively skewed

Box plot comparison questions are almost guaranteed on the exam. Always make two comparisons (one about centre, one about spread) and refer to the context (not just “Dataset A has a higher median” but “Students in Class A scored higher on average”).


Section 3: Probability

3.1 Basic Probability

P(A)=number of favourable outcomestotal number of outcomesP(A) = \frac{\text{number of favourable outcomes}}{\text{total number of outcomes}}

  • 0P(A)10 \le P(A) \le 1
  • P(not A)=1P(A)P(\text{not } A) = 1 - P(A)

3.2 Combined Events

Addition rule: P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(AB)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B)

If AA and BB are mutually exclusive (AB=A \cap B = \emptyset): P(AB)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B)

Multiplication rule: P(AB)=P(A)×P(BA)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B \mid A)

If AA and BB are independent: P(AB)=P(A)×P(B)P(A \cap B) = P(A) \times P(B)

3.3 Conditional Probability

P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)P(A \mid B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}

Conditional probability — medical testing

A disease affects 2% of a population. A test correctly identifies the disease 95% of the time (sensitivity) and correctly identifies healthy people 90% of the time (specificity). If a person tests positive, what is the probability they have the disease?

Let DD = has disease, TT = tests positive.

P(D)=0.02P(D) = 0.02, P(TD)=0.95P(T \mid D) = 0.95, P(TD)=0.10P(T \mid D') = 0.10.

P(T)=P(TD)×P(D)+P(TD)×P(D)=0.95×0.02+0.10×0.98=0.019+0.098=0.117P(T) = P(T \mid D) \times P(D) + P(T \mid D') \times P(D') = 0.95 \times 0.02 + 0.10 \times 0.98 = 0.019 + 0.098 = 0.117

P(DT)=P(TD)×P(D)P(T)=0.0190.117=0.162P(D \mid T) = \dfrac{P(T \mid D) \times P(D)}{P(T)} = \dfrac{0.019}{0.117} = 0.162

Only a 16.2% chance of actually having the disease, despite the positive test. This is a classic result that highlights the importance of base rates.

3.4 Tree Diagrams and Two-Way Tables

Tree diagrams are useful for sequential events. Multiply along branches, add between branches.

Two-way tables organize data for two categorical variables.

Which tool to use? If the events are sequential (first this, then that), use a tree diagram. If you have data classified by two categories, use a two-way table. On the exam, drawing the correct diagram usually earns a method mark even if the final answer is wrong.


Section 4: Probability Distributions

4.1 Discrete Random Variables

A discrete random variable XX takes specific values with known probabilities. The probabilities must sum to 1: P(X=x)=1\sum P(X = x) = 1.

Expected value (mean): E(X)=μ=xP(X=x)E(X) = \mu = \sum x \cdot P(X = x)

4.2 Binomial Distribution

Use when:

  • Fixed number of independent trials (nn)
  • Two outcomes only (success/failure)
  • Constant probability of success (pp)

XB(n,p)X \sim B(n, p)

P(X=k)=(nk)pk(1p)nkP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}

E(X)=npE(X) = np, Var(X)=np(1p)\text{Var}(X) = np(1-p)

Binomial distribution — quality control

In a factory, 8% of items are defective. A sample of 20 items is tested. Find (a) the probability that exactly 2 are defective, (b) the probability that at most 1 is defective, (c) the expected number of defective items.

XB(20,0.08)X \sim B(20, 0.08)

(a) Using GDC: P(X=2)=(202)(0.08)2(0.92)18=0.2711P(X = 2) = \binom{20}{2}(0.08)^2(0.92)^{18} = 0.2711

(b) P(X1)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)=(0.92)20+20(0.08)(0.92)19P(X \le 1) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = (0.92)^{20} + 20(0.08)(0.92)^{19}

Using GDC binomcdf: P(X1)=0.1887+0.3282=0.5169P(X \le 1) = 0.1887 + 0.3282 = 0.5169

(c) E(X)=np=20×0.08=1.6E(X) = np = 20 \times 0.08 = 1.6 defective items.

4.3 Normal Distribution

The normal distribution is a continuous, bell-shaped, symmetric distribution. It is fully described by its mean μ\mu and standard deviation σ\sigma.

XN(μ,σ2)X \sim N(\mu, \sigma^2)

Key properties:

  • Symmetric about the mean
  • 68% of data within 1σ\sigma of the mean
  • 95% within 2σ\sigma
  • 99.7% within 3σ\sigma

The 68-95-99.7 rule

RangePercentage
μ±σ\mu \pm \sigma68%
μ±2σ\mu \pm 2\sigma95%
μ±3σ\mu \pm 3\sigma99.7%

4.4 Calculating Normal Probabilities with GDC

Forward problem (given xx, find probability):

  • TI-84: normalcdf(lower, upper, mean, sd)
  • Casio: P(lower < X < upper) in DIST menu

Inverse problem (given probability, find xx):

  • TI-84: invNorm(area, mean, sd)
  • Casio: InvN in DIST menu

Normal distribution — exam scores

Exam scores are normally distributed with mean 65 and standard deviation 12. Find (a) the probability a student scores above 80, (b) the score that 90% of students exceed.

XN(65,122)X \sim N(65, 12^2)

(a) P(X>80)=normalcdf(80,1099,65,12)=0.1056P(X > 80) = \text{normalcdf}(80, 10^{99}, 65, 12) = 0.1056

About 10.6% of students score above 80.

(b) We need xx such that P(X>x)=0.90P(X > x) = 0.90, i.e., P(X<x)=0.10P(X < x) = 0.10.

x=invNorm(0.10,65,12)=49.6x = \text{invNorm}(0.10, 65, 12) = 49.6

90% of students score above 49.6.

Always sketch the normal curve. Draw the bell curve, mark the mean, shade the area you are finding. This helps you check whether your answer is reasonable (e.g., a probability above 0.5 for a value below the mean).


Section 5: Chi-Squared Test for Independence

The χ2\chi^2 test determines whether two categorical variables are independent (unrelated) or associated.

5.1 Setting Up the Test

  1. State hypotheses:

    • H0H_0: The variables are independent
    • H1H_1: The variables are not independent
  2. Create observed frequency table from data

  3. Calculate expected frequencies: E=row total×column totalgrand totalE = \dfrac{\text{row total} \times \text{column total}}{\text{grand total}}

  4. Calculate the test statistic: χcalc2=(OE)2E\chi^2_{\text{calc}} = \sum \dfrac{(O - E)^2}{E}

  5. Find degrees of freedom: df=(rows1)(columns1)\text{df} = (\text{rows} - 1)(\text{columns} - 1)

  6. Compare χcalc2\chi^2_{\text{calc}} with the critical value at the given significance level, or compare the pp-value with α\alpha.

  7. Conclude in context.

GDC does it all: Enter the observed frequencies as a matrix. Run the χ2\chi^2 test. The GDC gives you the test statistic, pp-value, degrees of freedom, and expected frequencies. You just need to set up hypotheses, run the test, and write the conclusion.

Chi-squared test — favourite subject by gender

A survey asked 200 students their favourite subject. The results:

ScienceArtsSportTotal
Male452530100
Female354025100
Total806555200

Test at the 5% significance level whether favourite subject is independent of gender.

H0H_0: Favourite subject is independent of gender.

H1H_1: Favourite subject is not independent of gender.

Expected frequencies: For Male-Science: E=100×80200=40E = \dfrac{100 \times 80}{200} = 40.

Full expected table:

ScienceArtsSport
Male4032.527.5
Female4032.527.5

χcalc2=(4540)240+(2532.5)232.5+(3027.5)227.5+(3540)240+(4032.5)232.5+(2527.5)227.5\chi^2_{\text{calc}} = \dfrac{(45-40)^2}{40} + \dfrac{(25-32.5)^2}{32.5} + \dfrac{(30-27.5)^2}{27.5} + \dfrac{(35-40)^2}{40} + \dfrac{(40-32.5)^2}{32.5} + \dfrac{(25-27.5)^2}{27.5}

=0.625+1.731+0.227+0.625+1.731+0.227=5.17= 0.625 + 1.731 + 0.227 + 0.625 + 1.731 + 0.227 = 5.17

df=(21)(31)=2\text{df} = (2-1)(3-1) = 2. Critical value at 5%: χ0.05,22=5.991\chi^2_{0.05, 2} = 5.991.

Since 5.17<5.9915.17 < 5.991, we do not reject H0H_0.

There is insufficient evidence at the 5% level to conclude that favourite subject depends on gender.

Writing the conclusion: Always state the conclusion in the context of the question, not in statistical jargon. Say “There is insufficient evidence that favourite subject depends on gender” rather than “We fail to reject the null hypothesis.” Also state whether you are comparing with a critical value or using the pp-value.

5.2 Conditions for the Chi-Squared Test

  • Data must be frequencies (counts), not percentages or proportions
  • Expected frequencies should all be at least 5 (the IB may ask you to check this)
  • Observations must be independent

Section 6: Correlation and Regression

6.1 Scatter Plots

A scatter plot shows the relationship between two quantitative variables. Describe the relationship using:

  • Direction: positive (both increase), negative (one increases as other decreases)
  • Strength: strong, moderate, weak
  • Form: linear, non-linear, no correlation

6.2 Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (rr)

rr measures the strength and direction of a linear relationship.

Value of rrInterpretation
r=1r = 1Perfect positive linear
0.7r<10.7 \le r < 1Strong positive
0.4r<0.70.4 \le r < 0.7Moderate positive
0<r<0.40 < r < 0.4Weak positive
r=0r = 0No linear correlation
Negative valuesSame interpretation, negative direction

rr only measures linear correlation. Two variables can have a strong non-linear relationship (e.g., quadratic) but r0r \approx 0. Always check the scatter plot.

6.3 Linear Regression

The least squares regression line y^=a+bx\hat{y} = a + bx minimizes the sum of squared residuals.

  • b=SxySxxb = \dfrac{S_{xy}}{S_{xx}} (gradient — in the formula booklet)
  • a=yˉbxˉa = \bar{y} - b\bar{x} (the line passes through (xˉ,yˉ)(\bar{x}, \bar{y}))

Use the regression line for interpolation (predicting within the data range). Be cautious with extrapolation.

Regression — advertising and sales

A company records weekly advertising spend (xx thousands) and sales (yy thousands):

xx246810
yy1522283540

Using GDC linear regression: y^=3.1x+9.1\hat{y} = 3.1x + 9.1, r=0.998r = 0.998.

Interpretation: For each additional 1000 spent on advertising, sales increase by approximately 3100 (thousands of dollars). The very high rr value indicates a strong positive linear relationship.

Predict sales for x=7x = 7: y^=3.1(7)+9.1=30.8\hat{y} = 3.1(7) + 9.1 = 30.8 thousand dollars. This is interpolation (within the data range) and is reliable.

Predict sales for x=20x = 20: y^=3.1(20)+9.1=71.1\hat{y} = 3.1(20) + 9.1 = 71.1 thousand. This is extrapolation (far beyond the data) and is unreliable — the linear trend may not continue.

6.4 Coefficient of Determination (R2R^2)

R2=r2R^2 = r^2 represents the proportion of variation in yy explained by the linear relationship with xx.

For example, if r=0.9r = 0.9, then R2=0.81R^2 = 0.81, meaning 81% of the variation in yy is explained by xx.


Section 7: Practice Questions

Paper 1 Style (Short Answer)

Q1. A dataset has Q1=23Q_1 = 23, Q3=41Q_3 = 41. (a) Find the IQR. (b) Determine the outlier boundaries.

(a) IQR = 4123=1841 - 23 = 18.

(b) Lower: 231.5(18)=2327=423 - 1.5(18) = 23 - 27 = -4. Upper: 41+1.5(18)=41+27=6841 + 1.5(18) = 41 + 27 = 68.

Any value below 4-4 or above 68 is an outlier.

Q2. Two fair dice are rolled. Find the probability that the sum is at least 10.

Outcomes with sum 10\ge 10: (4,6), (5,5), (5,6), (6,4), (6,5), (6,6) = 6 outcomes.

Total outcomes: 6×6=366 \times 6 = 36.

P(sum10)=636=16=0.167P(\text{sum} \ge 10) = \dfrac{6}{36} = \dfrac{1}{6} = 0.167 (3 s.f.)

Q3. Heights of students are normally distributed with mean 168 cm and standard deviation 7 cm. Find the probability that a randomly selected student is between 160 cm and 175 cm tall.

P(160<X<175)=normalcdf(160,175,168,7)=0.6827P(160 < X < 175) = \text{normalcdf}(160, 175, 168, 7) = 0.6827

Approximately 68.3% of students.

Paper 2 Style (Extended Response)

Q4. A researcher records the hours of study (xx) and exam score (yy) for 8 students. The GDC gives: xˉ=5.5\bar{x} = 5.5, yˉ=68\bar{y} = 68, r=0.92r = 0.92, regression line y^=4.8x+41.6\hat{y} = 4.8x + 41.6. (a) Describe the correlation. (b) Interpret the gradient. (c) Predict the score for a student who studies 7 hours. (d) A student claims this proves studying causes higher scores. Comment.

(a) There is a strong positive linear correlation between hours of study and exam score (r=0.92r = 0.92).

(b) The gradient of 4.8 means that for each additional hour of study, the exam score increases by approximately 4.8 marks.

(c) y^=4.8(7)+41.6=33.6+41.6=75.2\hat{y} = 4.8(7) + 41.6 = 33.6 + 41.6 = 75.2

This is interpolation (7 is within the data range of approximately 1-10 hours), so the prediction is reasonably reliable.

(d) Correlation does not imply causation. Other factors may contribute to both study hours and exam scores (e.g., motivation, prior knowledge). A randomized controlled experiment would be needed to establish causation.

Q5. A company claims that 85% of its deliveries arrive on time. In a random sample of 25 deliveries, 18 arrived on time. (a) Using a binomial model, find the probability of 18 or fewer on-time deliveries if the claim is true. (b) Does this provide evidence against the company’s claim at the 5% significance level?

(a) If the claim is true: XB(25,0.85)X \sim B(25, 0.85).

P(X18)=binomcdf(25,0.85,18)=0.0395P(X \le 18) = \text{binomcdf}(25, 0.85, 18) = 0.0395

(b) Since P(X18)=0.0395<0.05P(X \le 18) = 0.0395 < 0.05, the result is statistically significant at the 5% level. There is evidence to suggest the true on-time rate is less than 85%.

However, with a sample of only 25, this should be interpreted cautiously.

Q6. A survey of 150 employees classified by department and lunch preference gives the following data. Test at the 10% significance level whether lunch preference is independent of department.
CanteenPackedEat outTotal
Engineering3015550
Marketing20102050
Admin25101550
Total753540150

H0H_0: Lunch preference is independent of department.

H1H_1: Lunch preference is not independent of department.

Expected frequencies: e.g., Engineering-Canteen: 50×75150=25\frac{50 \times 75}{150} = 25.

Using GDC: χcalc2=12.14\chi^2_{\text{calc}} = 12.14, df=(31)(31)=4\text{df} = (3-1)(3-1) = 4.

pp-value =0.0163= 0.0163.

Since 0.0163<0.100.0163 < 0.10, we reject H0H_0.

There is sufficient evidence at the 10% significance level to conclude that lunch preference is not independent of department. Engineering staff are more likely to use the canteen, while Marketing staff are more likely to eat out.

Hypothesis testing checklist: (1) State H0H_0 and H1H_1 in context. (2) State the significance level. (3) Calculate the test statistic or pp-value using GDC. (4) Compare with critical value or α\alpha. (5) State conclusion in context. Missing any step loses marks.


May 2026 Prediction Questions

These are NOT official IB questions. These are trend-based practice questions written to reflect the topic areas and question styles most likely to appear on the May 2026 IB Math AI SL Paper 2. Based on recent exam patterns (2022–2025), expect heavy weighting on: normal distribution (finding probabilities and inverse values with GDC), chi-squared test of independence with a full contingency table, and linear regression including Pearson’s rr interpretation and prediction reliability.


Question 1 — Normal Distribution [~8 marks]

The masses of apples from an orchard are normally distributed with mean 182 g and standard deviation 24 g. An apple is selected at random.

(a) Find the probability that the apple has a mass greater than 200 g.

(b) Find the probability that the apple has a mass between 150 g and 210 g.

(c) The lightest 10% of apples are classified as “grade C” and sold at a discount. Find the maximum mass of a grade C apple.

(d) A crate holds 30 apples selected at random. Find the expected number of apples in the crate with mass greater than 200 g.

Show Solution

Let XN(182,242)X \sim N(182, 24^2).

(a) P(X>200)=normalcdf(200,1099,182,24)=0.2266P(X > 200) = \text{normalcdf}(200, 10^{99}, 182, 24) = 0.2266

About 22.7% of apples have a mass greater than 200 g.

(b) P(150<X<210)=normalcdf(150,210,182,24)=0.7871P(150 < X < 210) = \text{normalcdf}(150, 210, 182, 24) = 0.7871

About 78.7% of apples are between 150 g and 210 g.

(c) We need xx such that P(X<x)=0.10P(X < x) = 0.10.

x=invNorm(0.10,182,24)=151.2x = \text{invNorm}(0.10, 182, 24) = 151.2 g (4 s.f.)

The maximum mass of a grade C apple is 151 g (3 s.f.).

(d) E(apples>200 g)=30×0.2266=6.80E(\text{apples} > 200\text{ g}) = 30 \times 0.2266 = 6.80 apples.

Expected number is approximately 6.80 (or 7 apples).


Question 2 — Chi-Squared Test of Independence [~8 marks]

A sports club surveyed 180 of its members on their preferred activity, categorized by age group. The results are shown below.

SwimmingTennisGymTotal
Under 3022184080
30–5028241870
Over 50208230
Total705060180

(a) State the null and alternative hypotheses for a chi-squared test.

(b) Calculate the expected frequency for the “Under 30 / Swimming” cell. Show your working.

(c) Use your GDC to find the chi-squared test statistic and the pp-value.

(d) State the number of degrees of freedom.

(e) At the 5% significance level, determine whether preferred activity is independent of age group. State your conclusion in context.

Show Solution

(a)

H0H_0: Preferred activity is independent of age group.

H1H_1: Preferred activity is not independent of age group.

(b) Expected frequency for Under 30 / Swimming:

E=row total×column totalgrand total=80×70180=5600180=31.1 (3 s.f.)E = \frac{\text{row total} \times \text{column total}}{\text{grand total}} = \frac{80 \times 70}{180} = \frac{5600}{180} = 31.1 \text{ (3 s.f.)}

(c) Enter the observed frequencies into the GDC as a 3×33 \times 3 matrix and run the χ2\chi^2-Test.

GDC output: χcalc2=18.4\chi^2_{\text{calc}} = 18.4 (3 s.f.), pp-value =0.00102= 0.00102.

(d) df=(31)(31)=4\text{df} = (3 - 1)(3 - 1) = 4

(e) Since pp-value =0.00102<0.05= 0.00102 < 0.05, we reject H0H_0.

There is sufficient evidence at the 5% significance level to conclude that preferred activity is not independent of age group. In particular, older members appear more likely to prefer swimming, while younger members show a stronger preference for the gym.


Question 3 — Linear Regression and Prediction [~7 marks]

A researcher collects data on the average daily temperature (xx degrees C) and the number of visitors (yy) to an outdoor museum on 8 selected days.

xx1215171922242729
yy210265290330410450500545

(a) Use your GDC to find the equation of the regression line y^=ax+b\hat{y} = ax + b.

(b) Find Pearson’s correlation coefficient rr and describe the correlation.

(c) Use your model to predict the number of visitors on a day when the temperature is 20 degrees C.

(d) The researcher uses the model to predict visitor numbers on a day forecast to reach 38 degrees C. State whether this is interpolation or extrapolation, and comment on the reliability of this prediction.

Show Solution

(a) Enter xx-values in L1 and yy-values in L2. Run linear regression (LinReg).

GDC output: y^=20.1x39.8\hat{y} = 20.1x - 39.8 (values may vary slightly by GDC model; accept equivalent forms to 3 s.f.)

(b) r=0.998r = 0.998 (3 s.f.)

This indicates a very strong positive linear correlation between temperature and visitor numbers.

(c) y^=20.1(20)39.8=40239.8=362\hat{y} = 20.1(20) - 39.8 = 402 - 39.8 = 362 visitors.

Since x=20x = 20 is within the data range (12 to 29), this is interpolation and the prediction is reliable.

(d) x=38x = 38 is beyond the maximum data value of 29, so this is extrapolation. The prediction is unreliable — the linear trend may not continue at higher temperatures, and there may be physical limits on visitor capacity. The model should not be used for temperatures this far outside the data range.

IB Formula Booklet — Complex Numbers

Modulus & Polar Form

GIVENz = r(cosθ + i sinθ) = r cis θ
GIVENz = re (Euler form)
MEMORISE|z| = √(a² + b²)
MEMORISEarg(z) — sketch point, use quadrant formula

Polar Multiplication & Division

GIVENz&sub1;z&sub2; = r&sub1;r&sub2; cis(θ&sub1; + θ&sub2;)
GIVENz&sub1;/z&sub2; = (r&sub1;/r&sub2;) cis(θ&sub1; − θ&sub2;)

De Moivre's Theorem

GIVEN(r cis θ)n = rn cis(nθ)
MEMORISEz + 1/z = 2cosθ (when |z|=1)
MEMORISEz − 1/z = 2i sinθ (when |z|=1)

nth Roots

GIVENw1/n = r1/n cis((θ + 2πk)/n), k=0..n-1
MEMORISESum of nth roots of unity = 0
MEMORISE1 + ω + ω² = 0 (cube roots)

Conjugate & Arithmetic

MEMORISEz* = a − bi
MEMORISEz · z* = |z|² (always real)
MEMORISEz + z* = 2Re(z)
MEMORISEz − z* = 2i Im(z)

Loci

MEMORISE|z − a| = r → Circle, centre a, radius r
MEMORISE|z − a| = |z − b| → Perpendicular bisector
MEMORISEarg(z − a) = θ → Ray from a

Vieta's Formulas

MEMORISEz² + az + b = 0: sum = −a, product = b
MEMORISEConjugate root theorem: real coeff → roots come in conjugate pairs